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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 070 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Mar 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1430 (N21W42) produced a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu) and a Type IV radio sweep. Both flares had associated CMEs. The first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb. The second CME, associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at 10/1800Z. Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 - 1400 km/s. Region 1429 remained a large Ekc spot class with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic class. A new region appeared on the ENE limb near Region 1432 (N16E52). Close proximity to the limb made a detailed analysis of this new region difficult.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (11 - 13 March).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with periods of major storming at higher latitudes between 10/0600 - 1200Z. Activity was due to the continued effects of the 07 March CME. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft has gradually decreased from approximately 580 km/s to near 450 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 Mev proton events are on going. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled early on day 1 (11 March) until the arrival of the 09 March CME followed by todays CME associated with the M8 flare. Models show an arrival of the first CME early to midday on 11 March which is expected to cause minor to major storm conditions with isolated severe storm periods likely. Initial estimates on the second CME indicate an arrival late on day 1. Activity is expected to continue into day 2 (12 March) with minor to major storm conditions with isolated severe storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels by day 3 (13 March).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Mar till 13 Mar
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass40%40%40%
Proton99%99%60%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       10 Mar 149
  Prognoserat   11 Mar-13 Mar  155/155/155
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Mar  057/094
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  013/018
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  047/085-024/040-007/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Mar till 13 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%15%
Små stormförhållanden35%30%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden35%25%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt05%15%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%25%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden75%55%10%

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