Viewing archive of fredag 09 mars 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 09 2210 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

**********CORRECTED COPY********** SDF Nummer 069 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Mar 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z

Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 1429 (N18W13) produced an M6 flare at 09/0353Z. Associated with this event was Type II (1285 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a full halo CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0426Z. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 850 km/s in STEREO B COR2 imagery. Separation and slight decay within the intermediate area was observed in Region 1429, however it still remained a large Ekc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. A new spot group rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered Region 1432 (N18E69). This new region is too close to the limb to accurately determine the spot and magnetic classification, however it produced a C9 flare at 09/2025Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels with a chance for X-class activity from Region 1429 for the next three days (10 - 12 March).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm conditions due to continued activity from the sheath region associated with the 07 March CME. At approximately 09/0049Z, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field started to rotate towards a more magnetically connected polarity. Bz continued to be negative for several hours reaching values near -17 nT with an approximate solar wind speed over 600 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with major to severe storm periods during the periods 09/0300 - 1500Z. Solar wind remained elevated around 600 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z is ongoing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0405 is ongoing.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be under the influence of the current CME through early on day 1. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible is expected as the CME continues to wane. Early to mid-day on day 2 (11 March), the CME associated with todays M-6 flare is expected to become geoeffective. Active to severe storm periods are expected with this event. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible on day 3 (12 March) as conditions are expected to slowly dissipate.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Mar till 12 Mar
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass40%40%40%
Proton99%99%60%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       09 Mar 146
  Prognoserat   10 Mar-12 Mar  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Mar  021/028
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  046/073
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  015/022-033/070-017/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Mar till 12 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden20%35%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%20%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%20%40%
Små stormförhållanden25%30%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%50%25%

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