Viewing archive of torsdag, 8 mars 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 068 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Mar 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C7/Sf flare was observed from Region 1428 (S17W19). Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the spot group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 - 1800Z. At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March. A sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT). Minor storm periods were observed as a result of the CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at 08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of 69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to be under the influence of the CME from 07 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Mar till 11 Mar
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass40%40%40%
Proton99%99%70%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       08 Mar 140
  Prognoserat   09 Mar-11 Mar  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Mar  033/064
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  018/027
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  017/027-007/012-007/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Mar till 11 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden25%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%10%10%

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