Viewing archive of tisdag, 28 februari 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 059 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Feb 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (29 Feb - 02 Mar) with just a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a period of minor storm levels at some observatories during the local nighttime hours. Quiet conditions prevailed from the beginning of the period until about 07Z when a substorm interval began and continued through about 09Z. The planetary activity reached active levels but several individual stations attained minor storm levels during the disturbance. Activity promptly returned to predominantly quiet levels after the substorm and remained quiet for the rest of the period. The disturbance was preceded by about two hours of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) seen at the ACE spacecraft (0510-0702Z, with maximum southward deflection of -11 nT). The IMF was otherwise predominantly northwards during the interval. ACE data also indicated a solar sector boundary crossing at about 1534Z. The greater than 10 MeV protons observed by GOES returned to background levels late on the 27th and remained there through the end of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first two days (29 Feb - 01 Mar). A slight increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on the third day (02 Mar) due to a small but well positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Feb till 02 Mar
M-klass01%01%01%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       28 Feb 103
  Prognoserat   29 Feb-02 Mar  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 128
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Feb  012/019
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  008/009
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Feb till 02 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt05%05%10%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%15%

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