Viewing archive of fredag, 17 februari 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Feb 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 048 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Feb 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1418
(S23W55) redeveloped spots as a B-type group. The remaining regions
were quiet and stable. Two filament eruptions were observed during
the period. The first eruption was a 9 degree long filament
centered near N26E41 that lifted off at about 17/0130Z. The second
eruption was a 16 degree long filament centered near S33W17 that
lifted off at about 17/0553Z. LASCO C2 imagery observed a very
faint, slow-moving CME off the SSE limb first visible about
17/0745Z. This CME does not appear to have an Earth-directed
component.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (18 -
20 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind velocities
decreased during the period from about 350 km/s to near 300 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through most of day one (18
February). By late on day one and through day two (19 February),
field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels,
with isolated active periods, due to recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected by day three (20 February).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Feb till 20 Feb
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Feb 104 Prognoserat 18 Feb-20 Feb 105/100/110 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 132
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/003 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/002 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 007/008-008/008-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Feb till 20 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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