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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 043 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Feb 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to multiple C-class events from new Region 1419 (N28E77) which rotated onto the disk as a C-type group. This new spot group heralds the return of old Region 1402. New Region 1418 (S24E18) evolved on the disk as a B-type group while new Region 1420 (S13E77) rotated onto the disk as an H-type group. Region 1416 (S19W15) elongated along its axis and was classified as an E-type Beta group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity, and a slight chance for X-class activity, for the next three days (13 - 15 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind speeds were steady through the period at about 340 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north with a 3-hour period of southward Bz (-5 nT) from about 12/0600 - 0900Z. During this 3-hour period, the phi angle switched from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 February) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Late on day one and through day two (14 February), field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high latitude minor storm intervals. This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from the 10 February CME. Day three (15 February) will see a return of mostly quiet to unsettled levels as CME effects subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Feb till 15 Feb
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       12 Feb 110
  Prognoserat   13 Feb-15 Feb  120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 134
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Feb  003/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/005
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  011/012-014/018-006/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Feb till 15 Feb
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%40%20%
Små stormförhållanden15%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%50%30%
Små stormförhållanden20%30%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%01%

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