Viewing archive of fredag, 10 februari 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Feb 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 041 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Feb 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was low due to C-class x-ray events from
Region 1415 (N08W84). Region 1416 (S17E10) continues to evolve
developing a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1417
(N18E59) rotated onto the disk as a B-type group. As asymmetric,
full-halo CME was observed lifting off the NE limb, first seen in
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 09/2117Z. The source region for this event
appears to be located to the southwest of Region 1417. A second CME
was observed in STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery, first seen on the Ahead
spacecraft at 10/1154Z. The source of this CME appears to be a 23
degree long filament eruption, centered near S31E29. Analysis is
ongoing on the geoeffective potential of these CMEs.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(11 - 13 February) due to the return of old Region 1402 (N26,
L=218).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE satellite
solar wind velocities were steady through the period at about 450
km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was
mostly north at about 5 nT with brief southward excursions to -4 nT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (11 February) through midday
on day two (12 February). By midday on day two, and through day
three (13 February), field activity is expected to increase to quiet
to unsettled levels with high latitude active intervals. This
increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal high speed stream
that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Feb till 13 Feb
| M-klass | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Feb 111 Prognoserat 11 Feb-13 Feb 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 135
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Feb 004/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 004/005-006/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Feb till 13 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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