Viewing archive of söndag, 29 januari 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 029 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Jan 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Two new regions emerged on the disk during the period: Region 1412 (S15W41) and Region 1413 (N08E38). Both regions were magnetically simple Beta, B-type groups. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (30 January - 01 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The period began with ACE satellite wind velocities at about 450 km/s and exhibited slow decay to end the period near 380 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond +/- 4 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 27/1900Z, reached a maximum of 11 pfu at 27/2140Z and ended at 28/2120Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z was still in progress at the time of this report, but flux levels had decayed to below 100 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on day one (30 January). This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from the CME associated with the 27 January X1 flare. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on day two (31 January) due to residual CME effects. By day three (01 February), mostly quiet conditions are expected. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels, at geosynchronous orbit, are expected to decay to below event threshold by 30/1800Z.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Jan till 01 Feb
M-klass01%01%01%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton99%01%01%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       29 Jan 110
  Prognoserat   30 Jan-01 Feb  110/110/115
  90 Day Mean        29 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Jan  006/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  004/005
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  014/018-007/008-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Jan till 01 Feb
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%15%05%
Små stormförhållanden20%05%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%10%
Små stormförhållanden30%10%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%

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