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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 028 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Jan 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1410 (N18E48) produced a C1 flare at 28/1534Z. New Region 1411 (S26E09) was numbered today and is classified as an Axx-alpha type group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (29-31 January).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 27/1900Z and reached a max of 12 pfu at 27/2140Z, was still in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/1905Z and reached a peak of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z, was also still in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (29 January) as effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are expected on day two (30 January) due to effects from the CME associated with the X1 flare observed on 27 January. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (31 January) due to residual CME effects. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by 29/0000Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through day one (29 January) and then gradually decrease below threshold by the end of day two (30 January).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Jan till 31 Jan
M-klass01%01%01%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton99%70%20%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       28 Jan 115
  Prognoserat   29 Jan-31 Jan  115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Jan  006/007
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  004/004
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-014/018-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Jan till 31 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%40%15%
Små stormförhållanden01%15%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%30%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%30%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%01%

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