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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 027 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Jan 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1402 (N29W88) produced an X1/1f flare at 27/1837Z with associated Type II (est. speed 1523 km/s) and Type IV Radio Sweeps, along with an 810 pfu Tenflare. An associated CME was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 27/1827Z. The majority of the ejecta is directed towards the STEREO A spacecraft, however, further analysis is necessary to determine potential geoeffectiveness.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low on day one (28 January) with a chance for isolated M-class activity as Region 1402 rotates around the west limb. Activity is expected to be very low to low on days two and three (29-30 January).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods observed at mid-latitudes and an isolated minor storm period observed at high latitudes. The increase in activity is due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit were above event threshold during the period due to the X1 flare mentioned above. The greater than 10 MeV proton event, which began at 27/1905Z and reached 96 pfu at the time of this writing, is still in progress. The greater than 100 MeV proton event, which began at 27/1900Z and reached 11 pfu at the time of this writing, is also still in progress. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux value was enhanced due to the X1 flare mentioned above. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (28 January) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (29-30 January). The greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton events are expected to continue on day one. A more reliable end time will be possible once the peak levels are observed.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Jan till 30 Jan
M-klass25%01%01%
X-klass05%01%01%
Proton99%50%01%
PCAFRed
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       27 Jan 142
  Prognoserat   28 Jan-30 Jan  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        27 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Jan  005/006
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  007/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Jan till 30 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%10%10%
Små stormförhållanden10%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden15%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%

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