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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 016 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Jan 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1402 (N28E53) produced a long duration event (LDE) early on 16 January. The LDE began at 16/0236Z, reached a maximum at 16/0444Z and ended at 16/0646Z. A partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the ENE limb, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/0342Z with an initial radial velocity of about 793 km/s. Model output indicated the potential for a glancing blow from the CME beginning late on 19 January. Other activity included a C5/Sf flare from Region 1401 (N17E51) at 16/1038Z. Both Region 1401 and 1402 doubled in area as they continued to rotate onto the visible disk. New Region 1404 (N12W29) emerged on the disk as a D-type group, while new Region 1405 (N13E65) rotated onto the disk as an H-type group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (17 - 19 January), particularly from the east limb complex of spots.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with isolated intervals of active to minor storm conditions at high latitudes. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between 350 - 400 km/s through 16/0900Z. At that point, a gradual increase in wind speeds to about 500 km/s was observed with a corresponding southward dip to near -10 nT in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on day one (17 January). Day two (18 January) should see a return to mostly quiet levels. By day three (19 January), the field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through a majority of the day. Late on 19 January, an increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected due to anticipated effects from a glancing blow from the 16 January CME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Jan till 19 Jan
M-klass25%25%25%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       16 Jan 140
  Prognoserat   17 Jan-19 Jan  145/150/155
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/002
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  008/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/008-005/005-006/006
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Jan till 19 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%05%10%
Små stormförhållanden05%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%10%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%01%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%

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