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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 005 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Jan 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours with two C-class events observed. The first C-class flare was from Region 1390 (N09W71), which had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 695 km/s. Due to the location of this region, and the lack of a CME in imagery, no Earth impacts are expected. The second C-class flare was a long duration C2 flare at 05/1238Z from an eruptive filament channel, located around Region 1392 (N21W19). The associated CME can be seen in STEREO ahead and behind imagery and is not expected to impact Earth. Finally, a new Region emerged on the disk early in the period and was numbered as Region 1393 (N18W03).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days (06 - 08 January).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. From 05/1200-1500Z, the mid latitudes observed unsettled conditions while an isolated period at minor storm levels was observed at high latitudes. This small increase in activity was due to a sustained period of the negative Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, fluctuated around 340 km/s throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (06 January), unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes on day two (07 January) and predominantly unsettled levels on day three (08 January). The increase in activity is due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Jan till 08 Jan
M-klass10%10%10%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       05 Jan 141
  Prognoserat   06 Jan-08 Jan  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/002
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/005
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  005/008-014/010-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Jan till 08 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden01%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%35%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%40%01%

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