Viewing archive of torsdag, 10 november 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Nov 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 314 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Nov 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class flares were
observed. Region 1339 (N19W33) produced the largest flare of the
day, a C6/1f at 10/1831Z. Region 1339 showed gradual intermediate
and trailer spot decay during the period and was classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma. Minor spot growth was noted in Regions 1341
(N08E14), 1344 (S19W31), and 1345 (S25W16). No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (11 - 13 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339. There will also be a slight chance for a
major flare (M5 or above) from Region 1339 during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (11 November).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels
on day 2 (12 November) due to a CME arrival, associated with a halo
CME observed on 09 November. Activity is expected to decrease to
unsettled to active levels on day 3 (13 November) as CME effects
gradually subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Nov till 13 Nov
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Nov 179 Prognoserat 11 Nov-13 Nov 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/002 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/003 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Nov till 13 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 01% |
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