Viewing archive of söndag, 29 maj 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 May 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 149 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 May 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. At 29/1033Z, a
long-duration M1/1F flare occurred from Region 1126 (S21E54). The
flare was accompanied by a Type II (554 km/s shock velocity) radio
emission and a CME was later visible in both SOHO/LASCO and STEREO
COR2 imagery. The CME speed was estimated at 550 km/s using
plane-of-sky measurements. The CME is not expected to be
geoeffective, based on its origin. Region 1126 grew in area and
spot count over the past 24 hours. Two magnetically simple new
regions, 1127 (S19E69) and 1128 (N17E67), were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. More C-class events are expected and there is a
continued chance of an M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed rose above 500 km/s early in the period and ranged
between 700-800 km/s for the remainder. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +7 and -9 nT. At
the same time the wind speed increased, temperature increased,
density decreased and the Phi angle became negative. These
observations were consistent with a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The goemagnetic field is
expected to decline from predominantly unsettled to active levels on
day 1 (30 May), to quiet to unsettled levels on days 2 and 3 (31 May
- 01 Jun) as the coronal hole high speed stream wanes. There
remains a chance for isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes
on day 1.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 May till 01 Jun
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 May 111 Prognoserat 30 May-01 Jun 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 29 May 108
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 May 032/040 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 May 025/043 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 015/020-010/012-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 May till 01 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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