Viewing archive of fredag, 1 april 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 091 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Apr 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1178 (S17W36) produced a C1/Sf at 31/2221Z associated with a partial-halo CME that appeared to be directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1178 decayed to a plage area during the period. Region 1176 (S16W65) produced C3 flares at 01/0156Z and 01/0354Z, each of which were associated with CME activity. This CME activity also appeared to be directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1176 gradually decayed during the period with a loss of spot count and area. It was classified as an Fso-type with a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 1183 (N17E01) showed a gradual increase in spot count and area and was classified as an Esi-type with a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 1184, a single-spot Axx-type, was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (02 - 04 April) with a slight chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity increased to quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind observations indicated the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) at approximately 01/1600Z. Velocities increased to a peak of 495 km/s at 01/1801Z. IMF changes associated with the CH HSS included increased Bt (peaks to 12 nT during 01/2000 - 2100Z) and intervals of southward Bz (maximum deflection -10 nT at 01/1628Z).
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day 1 (02 April) with a chance for active levels as CH HSS effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days 2 - 3 (03 - 04 April) as CH HSS effects subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Apr till 04 Apr
M-klass25%25%25%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       01 Apr 109
  Prognoserat   02 Apr-04 Apr  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        01 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 31 Mar  002/003
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  010/013
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Apr till 04 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%15%10%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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