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Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Mar 27 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 086 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Mar 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1176 (S15E02) produced a C3/Sf at 27/0014Z with discrete radio emissions. Associated with this event was a CME, first observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at 27/0200Z and 27/0242Z respectively. The CME appeared as a narrow band extending east, as viewed in LASCO, and had an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 630 km/s. SDO/AIA 193 imagery indicated material movement in a wide band extending north through east with stronger movement in an easterly direction. Region 1176 showed little change during the period. At 27/0511Z, Type II (estimated shock velocity of 651 km/s) and Type IV radio signatures were observed. GOES13 and 15 were in eclipse phase, so GOES XRS data was not available. At 27/0512Z, limited GOES-15 SXI data indicated surging and material movement off the NE limb in the vicinity of new Region 1183 (N15E62). LASCO C2 (27/0536Z) and C3 (27/0606Z) imagery detected an asymmetric, partial-halo CME lifting off the NE limb with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 880 km/s. New Region 1183 rotated on as a large, 8-spot E-type group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. New Region 1182 (N13E01) evolved on the disk as a single spot unipolar group. The remaining groups were quiet and stable during the period. At this time, neither CMEs observed on 27 March appeared to have an Earth-directed component. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and 90 day mean are estimated due to non-receipt of 27 Marchs flux reading.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days (28-30 March). A chance for M-class activity exists on day one (28 March) becoming likely on days two and three (29 - 30 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity on 29 - 30 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the complex nature of Regions 1176 and 1183 plus the return of old Regions 1166 (N10, L=110) on 28 March and 1169 (N17, L=078) on 30 March. On their last transit across the disk, these regions produced a total of six M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities were low, varying between 300 to 370 Km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF was generally north through a majority of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on day one (28 March) due to possible effects from the 24 March CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day two (29 March). By day three (30 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Mar till 30 Mar
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       27 Mar 117
  Prognoserat   28 Mar-30 Mar  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        27 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Mar  001/001
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  001/001
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  010/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Mar till 30 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Små stormförhållanden05%01%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Små stormförhållanden10%01%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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