Viewing archive of lördag, 12 mars 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Mar 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 071 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Mar 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1166 (N08W52)
produced an M1/2n flare at 12/0443 and a C9/1F at 12/1527Z. Both
flares were accompanied by a Type II radio emissions and waves in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Region 1166 maintained its complex
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics and ended the period as an
Ekc type spot group. Regions 1169 (N19W22) and 1172 (N12E54) were
stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (13-15 March).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
late on 11 March; the phi angle shifting to the positive sector at
approximately 11/2200Z. Solar wind speed at ACE rose steadily,
ending the period near 550 km/s as the coronal hole high speed
stream became geoeffective. The initially southward Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field turned mostly northward after
11/0000Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the next three days under the
continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. There is a
slight chance for minor storm conditions at high latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Mar till 15 Mar
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Mar 121 Prognoserat 13 Mar-15 Mar 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 093
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Mar 018/040 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 012/018-010/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Mar till 15 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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