Viewing archive of torsdag, 3 mars 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Mar 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 062 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Mar 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1164 (N25W06) produced
a C5/1N flare at 03/1420Z and was classified as an Ekc type group
with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1167 (N14E31) was
numbered today and classified as a Bxo type group with Beta magnetic
characteristics. The remaining regions were quiescent. An
earth-directed CME was observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 03/0509Z
and in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 03/0636Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (04-06 March) with a chance for an
M-class event from Region 1164.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm
conditons. The storms were confined to high latitudes while middle
latitudes experienced quiet to active levels. The disturbed
conditions were the result of the continued influence of the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that became geoeffective
earlier in the week. Solar wind values at the ACE spacecraft ranged
between 560 to 660 km/s during the period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly southward from
03/05Z to 03/17Z, reaching -7 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to slowly return to quiet conditions during the forecast
period (04-06 March). Unsettled to active conditions are expected
on days 1 and 2 (04-05 March) with a slight chance for major storm
levels at high latitudes. Day 3 (06 March) will see a return to
predominantly quiet conditions as the coronal hole high speed stream
wanes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Mar till 06 Mar
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Mar 121 Prognoserat 04 Mar-06 Mar 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 088
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Mar 012/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Mar 015/017 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 012/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Mar till 06 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/19 | M2.1 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/16 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |