Viewing archive of onsdag, 2 mars 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Mar 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 061 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Mar 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1164 (N25E08) produced
a C1/Sf x-ray flare at 02/1318Z, the only flare of significance
during the period. Region 1164 decreased in area, but remained an
Ekc type spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics.
New Region 1166 (N10E77) rotated onto the disk as an Hsx type spot
group with Alpha magnetic characteristics. A flux region emerged in
the northeast quadrant near N20E40.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (03-05 March), however a chance exists for
an M-class event from Region 1164.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for the
first 12 hours of the period and at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream remains
geoeffective. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained
elevated at 640 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field began the period near -10 nT but slowly returned to
near neutral values by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to occasionally active for the next three
days (03-05 March) due to the continued influence of the coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Mar till 05 Mar
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 Mar 113 Prognoserat 03 Mar-05 Mar 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 088
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Mar 018/031 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 Mar 015/017 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Mar till 05 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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