Viewing archive of fredag, 18 februari 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Feb 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 049 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Feb 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was high during the past 24 hours.
Region 1158 (S19W64) produced several C-class events with a C1 at
17/2135Z that was associated with a Type II Sweep and an M1 event at
18/1303Z. Region 1161 (N12W02) grew slightly in area and maintained
a beta-gamma magnetic classification. New Region 1162 (N18W06) was
numbered today and developed rapidly into a Dai-type sunspot group
with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. The bulk of the activity
originated from this new region, including two M1 events and an M6
event at 18/1011Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for isolated high level activity for the next
three days (19-21 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor
storm period at high latitudes. This activity was due to the
effects of the CMEs associated with two M-class events and an
X-class event observed from 13-15 February. A sudden impulse of 33
nT was observed at 18/0136Z at the Boulder magnetometer in
association with this event. The ACE spacecraft indicated solar wind
velocities increased to approximately 700 km/s along with a
sustained period of southward Bz between -10 and -15 nT from
18/0200-0300Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for day one (19 February) due to the residual effects of the
recent CMEs. Days two and three (20-21 February) are expected to be
mostly quiet.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Feb till 21 Feb
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Feb 125 Prognoserat 19 Feb-21 Feb 120/120/110 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 086
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/002 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Feb 018/022 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Feb till 21 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/23 | M3.5 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
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|---|---|
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