Viewing archive of lördag, 5 februari 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Feb 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 036 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Feb 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1152 (S18W14) and Region 1153 (N15W31) have begun to decay
with a loss in areal coverage, magnetic complexity, and a reduced
sunspot number. Region 1150 (S20, L=187) decayed to spotless plage
early in the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for C-class activity for the next three
days (06-08 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with an
isolated period at G1 ,minor storm levels, from 4/2100Z-4/2400Z.
This increase in activity was associated with a reverse shock behind
a slow moving CME observed on 30 January. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicated the effects of the shock subsided around
4/0421Z, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream, in which the
CME was embedded, regained dominance. Throughout the period, the
total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) decayed from 17 nT at
04/2106Z to 3nT at 05/2008Z. Solar wind speeds peaked at around 675
km/s at 05/0536Z, but speeds began to decrease as the day
progressed.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (06-07
February) as the effects of the latest recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream wane. A return to quiet levels is expected on day three
(08 February).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Feb till 08 Feb
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Feb 081 Prognoserat 06 Feb-08 Feb 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Feb 012/021 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Feb 015/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Feb till 08 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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