Viewing archive of fredag, 4 februari 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Feb 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 035 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Feb 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1152 (S18W01)
produced a few B-class x-ray flares during the period. Newly
numbered Region 1153 (N1518) remained stable and quiet.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for a C-class x-ray event for
the next 3 days (5-7 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with an isolated
unsettled period between 04/03Z-04/06Z and an active period between
04/18Z and 04/21Z. A sudden impulse of 8 nT was observed at 04/0236Z
in association with a reverse shock behind the slow moving CME from
30 January. Solar wind speeds reached near 500 km/s and Bz was
sustained between -15 and -20 nT between 04/18Z and 04/21Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated
minor storm early, then mostly quiet to unsettled for the second
half of day 1 (5 February). Conditions are forecast to be
predominately quiet on days 2 and 3 (6-7 February) as coronal hole
effects wane.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Feb till 07 Feb
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Feb 082 Prognoserat 05 Feb-07 Feb 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Feb 000/001 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Feb till 07 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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