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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 007 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Jan 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Departing Region 1141 (N33, L=263) produced a B5 X-ray event at 07/1520Z as the region rotated around the west limb. New Region 1143 (S22E16) emerged on the disk as a D-type bi-polar group and exhibited steady growth through the period. Region 1139 (S27W74) redeveloped spots after a 6-day spotless plage interval. Region 1140 (N33W24) redeveloped spots to the north of the large H spot and was reclassified as a C-type bi-polar group. Region 1142 (S14W45) decayed to a uni-polar group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain at predominately very low levels during the forecast period (08 - 10 January). A chance for isolated C-class activity exists all three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor storm interval observed between 06/2100 - 2400Z. The increase in activity was due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocities, as observed at the ACE satellite, steadily increased throughout the period from about 450 km/s at 06/2100Z to a maximum of 627 km/s at 07/1545Z. Velocities remained near 600 km/s through the end of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum southward value of -14nT at 06/2226Z and remained southward between -5 nT to -10 nT for about 6 hours. For the remainder of the period, Bz fluctuated between +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the forecast period (08 - 10 January). Isolated active to minor storm periods are possible on 08 and 09 January. This activity is due to continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Jan till 10 Jan
M-klass01%01%01%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       07 Jan 086
  Prognoserat   08 Jan-10 Jan  086/086/084
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Jan  009/008
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  010/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  010/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Jan till 10 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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