Viewing archive of onsdag, 5 januari 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jan 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 005 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Jan 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels during the period
with only a few low-level B-class events observed. Region 1140
(N34E01) developed two spots to the NNE of the large H-type spot and
was reclassified as a Cso Beta. Region 1141 (N34W76) exhibited decay
in area and spot count while Region 1142 (S13W18) showed similar
decay, predominately in the trailer spots.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity,
all three days of the forecast period (06 - 08 January).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The ACE satellite
observed a sector boundary crossing from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) magnetic field at approximately 05/1830Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the
forecast period (06 - 08 January). Isolated active to minor storm
periods are possible beginning on 08 January. The forecasted
increase in activity levels is due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position
by 06 January.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Jan till 08 Jan
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Jan 088 Prognoserat 06 Jan-08 Jan 088/088/086 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Jan 002/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 007/007-007/007-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Jan till 08 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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