Viewing archive of lördag, 16 oktober 2010
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2010 Oct 16 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 289 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Oct 2010IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1112
(S18W28) produced an impulsive M2.9/1N flare at 16/1912Z. Associated
with this event were weak, discrete radio emissions ranging from
245MHz - 15,400MHz including a 140sfu Tenflare observed at 16/1916Z.
In addition, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock velocity
of 929km/s was observed with this event. During the period, Region
1112 grew both in spot count and area and developed beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. The remainder of the disk and limb
remained unchanged.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels, with a chance for additional M-class events
from Region 1112 all three days of the period (17 - 19 October).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two
(17 - 18 October). By day three (19 October), unsettled to active
levels, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, are
expected. The increase in activity is due to a geoeffective coronal
hole high speed stream coupled with possible glancing blow effects
from the 14 October CME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Oct till 19 Oct
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 Oct 087 Prognoserat 17 Oct-19 Oct 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 16 Oct 004/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Oct till 19 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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