Viewing archive of lördag, 16 december 2006
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2006 Dec 16 2234 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 350 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Dec 2006IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z Solar activity declined to very low levels today.
Region 930 (S06W72) remains a magnetically complex region. Some
decay was noted in the penumbra of the delta structure in the
southern portion of the large asymmetrical sunspot. Several minor
B-class flares were observed during the period from Region 930. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 930 remains capable of producing an
isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions were due to the lingering effects of the transient
resulting from the X3 flare that occurred on 13 December. A shock
passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 16/1722Z
which was followed by a Sudden Impulse at the Boulder magnetometer
at 16/1756Z (13 nT). This latest disturbance is associated with the
X1 flare that occurred on 14 December. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels with isolated
severe storm conditions possible on 17 December due to the effects
of today's transient passage. A return to quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on 18 and 19 December.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Dec till 19 Dec
| M-klass | 60% | 25% | 10% |
| X-klass | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 Dec 082 Prognoserat 17 Dec-19 Dec 080/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Dec 048/104 Förväntat Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 030/040-008/010-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Dec till 19 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 35% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 35% | 05% | 01% |
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