Viewing archive of torsdag, 14 december 2006
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2006 Dec 14 2258 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 348 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Dec 2006IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S05W47) continues
to exhibit a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The region is
showing a possible gradual separation of penumbra in its Delta area.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remains a
possibility.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached major to severe storm levels. The ACE
satellite observed the shock from the 13 December CME at 14/1356
UTC. A sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at
14/1416 UTC with a deviation of 26 nT. Periods of major to severe
storming occurred between 14/1200 UTC and 14/1800 UTC. Solar wind
speed is currently 900 km/s. A 100 MeV proton event commenced at
13/0300 UTC, reached maximum at 13/0525 UTC with 88.7 pfu and ended
at 14/1150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event that started 13/0310
UTC is still in progress with a current level of 21.7 pfu. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels for 15 December.
This activity is due to the CME observed on 13 December. Unsettled
to active conditions are expected for 16 and 17 December.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Dec till 17 Dec
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Dec 093 Prognoserat 15 Dec-17 Dec 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Dec 040/070 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 040/045-012/020-008/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Dec till 17 Dec
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 50% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 60% | 10% | 10% |
Senaste nytt
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torsdag, 22 februari 2024
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/19 | M1.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |