Viewing archive of lördag, 23 september 2006

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2006 Sep 23 2204 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 266 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Sep 2006

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low with one C-class flare produced by Region 910 (S10W18). Seeing conditions at all optical sites have ranged from poor to non-existent so there is some disagreement in the magnetic classification of this region, however, a classification of Beta seems most likely. The San Vito optical site reported a Type II radio sweep from 23/1106Z - 23/1114Z with an estimated shock speed of 711 km/s. No current imagery is available to aid in determining the possibility that a CME may be associated with this radio event or in identifying the location of this event. Within an hour of the radio sweep GOES 11 experienced an enhancement of >1 MeV proton flux which peaked at 1800Z and is now decreasing.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 910.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one unsettled period. Activity is due to both the occurrence of a solar sector boundary crossing and the beginning of a coronal hole high speed stream now rotating into a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels again today, however, at approximately 1930Z flux decreased to below the threshold level for the first time in several days.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels with some isolated minor storm periods. This activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Sep till 26 Sep
M-klass01%01%01%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       23 Sep 070
  Prognoserat   24 Sep-26 Sep  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        23 Sep 076
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Sep  001/003
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  010/020-006/008-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Sep till 26 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden25%20%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%10%

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