Viewing archive of onsdag, 14 september 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Sep 14 2216 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 257 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Sep 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z

Solar activity continues at high levels. An impulsive X1.7/1b flare was observed at 13/2322 UTC from Region 808 (S11W10). This flare occurred during the decay phase of yesterdays double peak X1 proton flare. This X1.7 event had an associated 180 sfu tenflare. Region 808 exhibited little change over the past 24 hours and still maintains a strong beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808 has the potential for further M and X-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor storm conditions were the result of elevated solar wind speeds and long periods of southward Bz in the IMF. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10 pfu event threshold at 14/0040 UTC in response to an influx of energetic particles from the recent X1 flares late on 13 September. This new proton enhancement reached a maximum of 183 pfu at 14/1520 UTC before declining to around 50 pfu by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach major to severe storm levels on 15 September following the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 13 September X1 flares. Minor storm to major storm periods are possible on 16 September decreasing to mostly unsettled by 17 September. The greater than 10 MeV proton event may increase temporarily with the shock arrival.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Sep till 17 Sep
M-klass75%70%65%
X-klass50%40%40%
Proton99%60%40%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       14 Sep 117
  Prognoserat   15 Sep-17 Sep  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 092
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Sep  026/051
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  018/025
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  050/075-018/030-008/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Sep till 17 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%35%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden60%10%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt10%35%30%
Små stormförhållanden20%35%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden70%20%05%

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