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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Sep 08 2204 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 251 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Sep 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z

Solar activity remains at high levels. An X5/2b flare was in progress from Region 808 (S09E67) at the time of this writing. Moderate centimetric radio bursts are also in progress, including a 990 sfu Tenflare. Very active Region 808 is rotating into view as a large and complex sunspot cluster. Limb proximity is still hindering the analysis, but this compact spot group will likely exceed 1000 millionths of white light area. Numerous C-class flares and two M2 flares preceded the X5 event. New Region 809 (N10E60) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain at high levels. Region 808 is a large and complex sunspot group capable of producing M and X-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A sudden disturbance of 41 nT (magnetic crochet) was observed in the geomagnetic field following today's X5 flare. A greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV proton event occurred following yesterday's X17 flare on the southeast limb. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 08/0215Z and remains in progress. The peak flux so far was 87 pfu at 08/1950Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 08/0405Z and also remains in progress. The peak flux was 7 pfu at 08/1925Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event from a source on the east limb is extremely rare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The CME associated with yesterday's X17 flare was very large and very fast. Although the magnetic cloud associated with this CME is not expected to impact Earth, a shock passage is expected, which will likely produce active to minor storm periods on 09 Sep. Isolated active periods are expected on 10 and 11 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to continue through 10 Sep. A further enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons will likely follow the anticipated shock passage on 09 Sep. Today's X5 flare may enhance the existing proton event. The greater than 100 MeV proton event will persist through 09 Sep.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Sep till 11 Sep
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass50%50%50%
Proton99%90%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       08 Sep 094
  Prognoserat   09 Sep-11 Sep  100/110/110
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Sep  018/015
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  020/025-015/020-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Sep till 11 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%40%30%
Små stormförhållanden30%20%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%10%05%

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