Viewing archive of torsdag, 7 juli 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jul 07 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 188 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Jul 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N12W04) produced an M4.9/Sn flare at 07/1629 UTC. This event also had an associated 180 sfu Tenflare and a full halo CME, which was observed by LASCO imagery. Region 786 has grown in both white light area coverage and sunspot count, and has maintained its magnetic delta configuration. Two other events were observed by LASCO imagery earlier in the period. The first was a faint partial halo event which was first observed at 06/2126 UTC. Data for this event indicates it is probably a back-sided event and not Earth directed. The second event was a CME observed with a possible partial halo beginning around 07/1250 UTC. This event was likely associated with an 11 degree long disappearing filament centered at N07E00 between 07/1033 - 1148 UTC.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions. Activity is expected due to possible effects from the CME observed on 05 July, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream, today's M4 halo CME, and the CME associated with the disappearing filament centered at N07E00.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Jul till 10 Jul
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       07 Jul 125
  Prognoserat   08 Jul-10 Jul  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        07 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Jul  003/005
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/007
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  015/025-020/030-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Jul till 10 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden10%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%45%40%
Små stormförhållanden20%25%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%10%

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