Viewing archive of söndag, 12 juni 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jun 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 163 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Jun 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 775 (N10W32)
produced two C-class flares, a C3.5/Sf at 0236 UTC and a C3.0/Sf at
1609 UTC. Both flares were long duration events. No significant
development was observed from the regions on the active disk, and no
new regions were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance of M-class activity from Region 775.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A minor
transient was observed at ACE at 0650 UTC, followed by an increase
in solar wind speed from 300 km/s to around 500 km/s. Subsequent
active conditions were observed. At 1600 UTC Bz began a period of
consistently southward orientation of -15 nT, which continued to the
time of this report and led to minor storming late in the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Continued southward
Bz observed late on 12 June will likely result in minor and isolated
major storming early on 13 June. Activity should subside late on 13
June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 and 15 June,
with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Jun till 15 Jun
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Jun 103 Prognoserat 13 Jun-15 Jun 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Jun 006/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Jun 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 010/025-008/020-006/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Jun till 15 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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