Viewing archive of fredag, 27 maj 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 May 27 2220 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 147 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 May 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 767 (S08W02)
produced an M1/2f and associated tenflare at 27/1230 UTC. This
region also produced a C8 flare at 26/2139 UTC. A type IV radio
sweep was associated with this C8 event and a faint CME was observed
on LASCO imagery. Region 767 continues to develop in both size and
magnetic complexity, and is now nearing 400 millionths of white
light area.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 767 has the potential for further M-class
activity. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), a large and moderately
complex region during its last rotation, is due to rotate onto the
visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storming. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position on 28 May. The most disturbed periods will likely occur on
29 and 30 May as the recent CMEs from Region 767 are expected to
impact the geomagnetic field.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 May till 30 May
| M-klass | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 May 096 Prognoserat 28 May-30 May 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 27 May 091
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 May 001/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 May 005/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 015/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 May till 30 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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