Viewing archive of torsdag, 26 maj 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 May 26 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 146 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 May 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A long duration B7.5 flare occurred at 26/1420 UTC from Region 767 (S08E12). A filament eruption was associated with this event, followed by a full halo CME on LASCO imagery. The bulk of the CME, first seen at 26/1506 UTC, was directed to the south west. The plane of sky speed of the ejecta was approximately 575 km/s. At the time of issue, a C8 flare was in progress in this region. New sunspot development between the leading and trailing spots have increased the size and complexity of this active region. New Region 768 (S08W48) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 767 has the potential for C-class activity with a small chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), which produced three M-flares on its last rotation, is expected to rotate onto the visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods on 27 and 28 May due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream. The full halo CME from 26 May is expected to cause active to minor storm conditions on 29 May.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 May till 29 May
M-klass05%05%05%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       26 May 090
  Prognoserat   27 May-29 May  090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        26 May 091
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 25 May  002/006
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 26 May  005/005
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  010/010-015/020-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 May till 29 May
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%25%40%
Små stormförhållanden10%15%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%40%50%
Små stormförhållanden10%20%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%10%15%

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