Viewing archive of onsdag, 19 januari 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jan 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 019 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Jan 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W56) produced
an X1/2n flare at 19/0822 UTC. This flare was similar to previous
major flares in this region with strong radio output and a CME
directed mostly to the northwest. Further decay in the region has
occurred, although it remains fairly large and magnetically complex.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 720 retains the potential for another major
event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic disturbance remained in progress at the active to
severe storm level. The greater than 100 MeV proton event has ended:
start 17/1215 UTC, 28 pfu peak at 17/1700 UTC, and end 18/2205 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress but is
decaying: start 16/0210 UTC and 5040 pfu peak at 17/1750 UTC. Proton
fluxes have decreased enough for the GOES electron sensors and ACE
SWEPAM instruments to again provide reliable data. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at active to severe storm levels. Storm
intensity is expected to taper off over the next 48 hours, as is the
10 MeV proton event, barring another significant solar event in
Region 720.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Jan till 22 Jan
| M-klass | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| X-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 90% | 80% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Jan 133 Prognoserat 20 Jan-22 Jan 130/120/110 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Jan 035/072 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Jan 050/080 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 040/050-020/030-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Jan till 22 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 20% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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