Viewing archive of tisdag, 18 januari 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 018 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Jan 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13W44) continued to flare; however, the largest event in the past 24 hours was an M4/2n at 18/1551 UTC. Although the region remains large and magnetically complex, further sunspot restructuring and decay is evident since yesterday. New Region 724 (S12W07) emerged on the disk.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720, although diminishing in complexity, still has sufficient potential for another major solar event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress with a start time of 16/0210 UTC and a peak flux of 5040 pfu observed at 17/1750 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event also remains in progress with a start time of 17/1215 UTC and a 28 pfu peak flux observed at 17/1700 UTC. GOES spacecraft electron sensors and ACE SWEPAM instruments remain affected by the energetic proton event.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at active to severe storm levels for the next 24 to 48 hours. The arrival of the CME associated with the X3 flare on 17 January has not yet been observed but is expected to contribute to geomagnetic activity over the next 12 to 24 hours. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by early on 19 January, barring a new major flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to remain in progress through late 19 to early 20 January.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Jan till 21 Jan
M-klass90%90%90%
X-klass30%20%10%
Proton80%75%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       18 Jan 124
  Prognoserat   19 Jan-21 Jan  120/110/100
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 107
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Jan  027/063
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  040/080
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  030/075-020/030-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Jan till 21 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden60%50%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt10%25%50%
Små stormförhållanden70%60%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%15%05%

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