Viewing archive of fredag, 7 januari 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 007 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Jan 2005

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 715 (N06w59) has decayed to a small single polarity sunspot. New Region 718 (S09E78) was numbered today and was responsible for occasional B-class flares. Another active region is rotating into view near S12.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from active regions near the southeast limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow, likely the CME activity from 04 and 05 January, impacted the geomagnetic field first at around 07/0900Z. The existing elevated solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to just over 600 km/s. The major storming followed a period of sustained southward Bz to near -10 nT between 07/1300 - 1500Z. A second disturbance passed the ACE spacecraft at 07/2010Z. Only a weak enhancement was observed on the plasma measurements; however, the IMF Bz turned sharply southward to near -15 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again this period. The energetic electrons, which have been sustained at high levels since 03 January, dropped below the high threshold at approximately 07/1900Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow from the CME activity on 04 and 05 January will continue the current disturbance through 08 January. Periods of minor to major storming are expected on the 8th. Quiet to active levels are expected on 09 January, before gradually returning to predominantly quiet conditions on 10 January.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Jan till 10 Jan
M-klass05%05%05%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       07 Jan 084
  Prognoserat   08 Jan-10 Jan  085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  018/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  025/040-012/020-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Jan till 10 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%30%20%
Små stormförhållanden30%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%05%01%

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