Visa arkiv av onsdag 29 december 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 364 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Dec 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. Region 715 (N04E61) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at 29/1627Z. An associated Tenflare (510 sfu) and a spectral Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 411 km/s. This flare also produced a CME that does appear to be Earth directed. Several lesser C-class flares were also reported from this region during the period. The large asymmetrical sunspot contains both polarities and appears to be magnetically complex. Region 713 (S09W91) produced an M1 x-ray flare that occurred at 29/1920Z. Multiple lesser C-class flares originated from this region and the sunspot cluster was in a growth phase as the spot group transited the solar west limb. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 715 is capable of producing isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions were most likely the result of the geoeffective transequatorial high speed coronal hole stream that had a mean radial speed today of approximately 430km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active conditions early on the first day (30 Dec) of the period are possible as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Dec till 01 Jan
M-klass60%50%50%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       29 Dec 099
  Prognoserat   30 Dec-01 Jan  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Dec  012/016
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  018/022
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Dec till 01 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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