Viewing archive of lördag, 6 november 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 311 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Nov 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region 696 (N09W08) produced an M9/2n major flare at 06/0034Z. This flare had an associated Tenflare of 2700 sfu's, a Type IV spectral radio sweep, a Type II spectral radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 523 km/sec, strong discrete frequency radio bursts, and a partial halo CME seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery. A impulsive M1 x-ray event occurred later in the period at 06/1953Z. This region continues to show growth in penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. Region 693 (S15W57) continues to decay and exhibits a simple north-south magnetic inversion line. Regions 697 (N05W52) and 698 (S10W42) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels for the next three days due to the complexity of Region 696.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The ACE spacecraft indicates that there should be a shock passage early on 07 November allowing for minor to major storm conditions due to the full halo CME resulting from the M5 event on 03 November. A weaker shock may also arrive later on 07 November due to the long duration C6/Sf event that resulted in a partial halo CME that occurred on 04 November at 0905Z. Another potential shock passage is expected on 08 November resulting from the combination of the M2 and M5 x-ray events and associated partial halo CME that occurred yesterday could produce periods of minor storming. The M9/2n event that produced yet another partial halo CME that occurred today should arrive Earth on 09 November in tandem with the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream which may result in periods of minor to major storm conditions. A slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV proton flux event in association with a major flare from Region 696 remains worthy of note.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Nov till 09 Nov
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       06 Nov 129
  Prognoserat   07 Nov-09 Nov  125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 110
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Nov  001/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  001/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  025/030-020/020-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Nov till 09 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden35%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%15%15%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%45%30%
Små stormförhållanden40%25%40%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%15%20%

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