Visa arkiv av fredag 05 november 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 310 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Nov 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 696 (N09E06) produced the largest flare of the period, an M5 major flare at 04/2309Z that had an associated Tenflare (1800 sfu's), Type IV spectral radio sweep, and a Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 1053 km/sec. An M2/1n event occurred at 04/2229Z. The combination of these two flares resulted in a complex partial halo CME that should become geoeffective. Region 696 also produced an M4/1f at 05/1130Z that had an associated Tenflare and a Type IV spectral radio sweep and an M1/Sf that occurred at 05/1922Z. This region continues to grow in sunspot area and magnetic complexity while the delta magnetic structure remains well intact. Region 693 (S15W44) has shown steady decay today as the sunspot penumbral converge has lessened and the magnetic delta structure is no longer evident. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Several M-class flares with an isolated major flare are possible from Region 696.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. The anticipated shock from the full halo CME related to M5/Sn that occurred on 03 November at 1547Z and is expected to arrive on 06 November. A weaker shock is expected late on the sixth, early on 07 November as a result of the long duration C6/Sf event from 04 November that occurred at 0905Z indicated by the resulting partial halo CME. A third shock passage is expected late on the seventh, early on 08 November due to the resulting partial halo CME that occurred today in response to the combination of the M2 and M5 x-ray events of today. Due to the magnetic complexity and frequency of M-class flares from Region 696 there exists a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit to exceed threshold in response to further major flare activity.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Nov till 08 Nov
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       05 Nov 141
  Prognoserat   06 Nov-08 Nov  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 109
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Nov  005/007
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/007
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  025/030-020/020-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Nov till 08 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%35%
Små stormförhållanden35%25%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%15%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%45%45%
Små stormförhållanden40%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%15%15%

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