Viewing archive of torsdag, 4 november 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 309 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Nov 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. The largest flare of the period was a long duration C6/Sf that occurred at 04/0905Z from Region 696 (N09E19). There was an associated Tenflare (210 sfu's) and a Type IV spectral radio sweep. A partial halo CME was also seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery shortly following this event which appears to have the potential of becoming geoeffective. There was a doubling of the sunspot area coverage and a magnetic delta structure is now visible in the trailing portion of the spot cluster. Region 693 (S15W31) remains impressive in appearance, although there were no recorded flares and some decay was observed during the day. There remains a weak delta structure in the trailing portion of the sunspot complex. Region 691 (N13W94) produced B and C class flares as this region exited the solar west limb. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 693 and 696 are both capable of producing an isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels today. There was one active period at high latitudes occurring between 03/2100 and 2400Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled on 05 November. On 06 November the field is expected to see minor to major storming conditions due to the effects of the M5/Sn event that occurred yesterday producing a full halo CME from Region 696. A partial halo CME resulting from the long duration C6/Sf flare that occurred at 04/0905Z is expected to produce minor storming conditions late on the sixth, or early on 7 November.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Nov till 07 Nov
M-klass60%60%60%
X-klass20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       04 Nov 136
  Prognoserat   05 Nov-07 Nov  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 109
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/010
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  008/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  012/015-025/030-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Nov till 07 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden15%35%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%20%15%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%35%
Små stormförhållanden15%45%40%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%20%15%

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