Viewing archive of onsdag, 20 oktober 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 294 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Oct 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 687 (N10E65) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at 20/1051Z. A CME was observed in LASCO imagery which does not appear to be Earth directed. This region remains too close to the eastern limb to fully discern magnetic complexity, although it does appear to contain a compact cluster of sunspots exhibiting both polarities. Region 682 (S13W33) produced multiple low level flares today, the largest was a C4/Sf which occurred at 20/0213Z. This region underwent moderate growth today. A beta-gamma magnetic structure is now evident and the sunspot area showed a modest increase during the period. Region 688 (S08W48) showed moderate growth over the period and was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 682 and 687 both have a fair potential for the production of isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred in response to the sustained southward movement of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Oct till 23 Oct
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       20 Oct 111
  Prognoserat   21 Oct-23 Oct  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 105
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  006/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Oct till 23 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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