Viewing archive of tisdag, 17 augusti 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Aug 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 230 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Aug 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 656 (S14W77)
produced several major flares over the period. The largest flare
was an M2.4 flare at 17/1937 UTC. Region 656 decayed slightly as it
approached the west limb. A large filament erupted in the southeast
quadrant of the solar disk at 0500 UTC, observed on SOHO/EIT
imagery. Shortly thereafter a CME was observed emerging from the
southeast limb at 0630 UTC on LASCO imagery. The CME was not
directed towards Earth. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 656 may still produce major flare activity
before it crosses the west limb in the next day.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day three (20 Aug) from the minor effects
of a small coronal hole that will reach geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Aug till 20 Aug
| M-klass | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| X-klass | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Aug 135 Prognoserat 18 Aug-20 Aug 125/115/115 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Aug 005/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 008/008-005/008-008/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Aug till 20 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/19 | M1.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |