Viewing archive of tisdag, 20 juli 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 202 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Jul 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 652 (N10E32) produced an M8/3b major flare at 20/1232Z with an associated Tenflare of 3000 sfu's. A Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 485 km/s and a Type IV also accompanied the flare. The C6/Sf flare that occurred at 20/1126Z in conjunction with the flare mentioned above produced what appears as a full halo CME signature on LASCO C3 imagery. The delta structure seen as the dominate intermediate spot remains intact and the magnetic classification continues to exhibit beta-gamma-delta properties. Region 652 continues to show growth in spot area which now exceeds 1600 millionths in white light. Region 649 (S10W27) continues to show decay and was limited to C-class flare activity today. Delta structures are evident in the leading polarity spot cluster while yesterday's trailing polarity delta spot is no longer discernible. A significant and continued loss of spot area was again seen over the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 652 is capable of producing further major flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on 21 and 22 July. A shock passage from the combination of the C6 and M8 x-ray flares today is expected to pass the ACE spacecraft early on 23 July.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Jul till 23 Jul
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass30%30%30%
Proton15%20%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       20 Jul 175
  Prognoserat   21 Jul-23 Jul  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        20 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Jul  011/009
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 20 Jul  008/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  008/008-010/012-025/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Jul till 23 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%40%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%15%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%20%45%
Små stormförhållanden05%15%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%15%

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