Viewing archive of söndag, 18 juli 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 200 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Jul 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region 649 (S10E00) produced five M-class events, all of which occurred in a constricted area around the delta structure in the trailing portion of the spot group. The M-class flares chronologically occurred with an M2/1f at 17/2131Z, an M1 x-ray at 17/2308Z, an M2/1f at 18/0035Z, an M1/Sf at 18/0257Z, and an M1/1f at 18/1713Z. Weak radio bursts accompanied many of today's events while LASCO imagery depicted only faint CME signatures in association with the flare activity observed during the period. Magnetically, Region 649 remains a beta-gamma-delta spot group. Region 652 (N05E58) has fully rotated into view today and is currently measured in white light at over 1300 millionths of spot area coverage. Several C-class flares were observed during the period and a strong delta structure is evident in the intermediate cluster of spots. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 649 and 652 are both capable of producing major flare level activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible on 19 and 20 July mostly at higher latitudes due to the potential for transient passages from the major flare activity seen from Region 649 during the past several days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Jul till 21 Jul
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass40%40%40%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       18 Jul 155
  Prognoserat   19 Jul-21 Jul  150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        18 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Jul  013/024
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  008/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  010/015-010/015-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Jul till 21 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%05%

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