Viewing archive of lördag, 17 juli 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jul 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 199 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Jul 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 649 (S10E13)
continues to produce M and X-class flare activity. The largest
flare of the period was an X1/1f impulsive flare that occurred at
17/0757Z. Region 649 also produced an M2/1n event at 17/1651Z.
Minor radio bursts accompanied both flares. LASCO imagery shows
most of the CME plasma structure directed towards the eastern solar
hemisphere. Region 652 (N05E71) appears fairly ominous in white
light with 750 millionths of sunspot area. This region has produced
several C-class flares today and remains too close to the solar
eastern limb to determine accurate magnetic structure. Region 653
(S14E71) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. ACE
data indicates that a shock passed the instrument at approximately
16/2100Z. This transient is believed to have been the result of the
weak signature, full halo CME activity seen on 13 July. Higher
latitudes experienced major storm conditions between 17/0000 and
0300Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. There is a chance
for isolated active to minor storm conditions with further transient
activity resulting from the multitude of major flares seen over the
past several days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Jul till 20 Jul
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Jul 149 Prognoserat 18 Jul-20 Jul 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Jul 024/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Jul till 20 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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