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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 198 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Jul 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 649 (S10E26) produced three X-class flares: an X1 at 0206 UTC, an X1/1f at 1041 UTC, and an X3/3b at 1355 UTC. All of these events were impulsive and none were associated with an obvious CME in the LASCO data. However, a weak type II radio sweep was observed in association with the X3 event. Region 649 has shown some consolidation of spots in the leader and in the trailer areas and the region is maintaining complexity - the delta configuration in the dominant trailer penumbra continues to be the primary location for the flare activity. Two new regions are just visible on the east limb in GOES-12 SXI images at S11 and N05. The region to the north rotated into view at (N05E88) and was assigned SWO region number 652.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 649 is expected to continue to produce M-class flares and has a fair chance for producing more major flare activity during the next three days (17-19 July). These events could become geoeffective (i.e. earthward directed CMEs or proton events) as the region evolves and as it moves near central meridian and into the western hemisphere.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, although there was one active period from 2100-2359 on 15 July.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (17-19 July). As noted previously, however, there is a possibility that Region 649 could produce some events that could increase geomagnetic activity during the forecast interval.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Jul till 19 Jul
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass35%35%35%
Proton15%20%25%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       16 Jul 147
  Prognoserat   17 Jul-19 Jul  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/009
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  010/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  010/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Jul till 19 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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