Viewing archive of torsdag, 15 juli 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 197 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Jul 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 649 (S10E40) produced two impulsive X-class flares: an X1 at 0141 UTC and an X1 at 1824 UTC. Both of these events originated near the delta configuration in the dominant trailer spot. Although the spot is not large, the close proximity of opposite polarity spots is creating an area of strong magnetic gradients. There was also some magnetic flux emergence to the south of this spot during the past 24 hours. Both of the events were compact and bright. LASCO coronagraph data did not show a CME in association with the first X1 event. As of forecast issue time the LASCO data seemed to indicate a slow, relatively faint CME off the east limb in association with the second X1 event.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high, with Region 649 as the dominant source for activity. Additional M-class flares are expected and there is a fair chance for additional major flare activity out of 649, especially if magnetic flux continues to emerge.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow (16 July) with a chance for some isolated active periods at higher latitudes. Conditions should be predominantly unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days (17-18 July).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Jul till 18 Jul
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass30%30%30%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       15 Jul 146
  Prognoserat   16 Jul-18 Jul  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Jul  006/009
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  012/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Jul till 18 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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