Viewing archive of onsdag, 14 juli 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jul 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 196 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Jul 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 646 (N12W72) produced
an impulsive M6/1n flare at 0523 UTC. The event was accompanied by
weak radio bursts, and there was no associated CME visible in the
LASCO coronagraph data. The group appears to be decaying and was
less active today than it was yesterday. Region 649 (S10E53)
continues to be the largest group on the disk and managed to produce
one M-flare, an M1/Sf at 1816 UTC. The size of the group is about
the same as yesterday, but the region does appear to have a small
magnetic delta configuration in the dominant trailer spots, and this
appears to be the primary location for occasional flare activity.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with regions 646 and 649 the most likely sources. There
continues to be a slight chance for an additional, major flare event
from Region 646.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed showed
a steady decline during the past 24 hours with values around 450
km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (15 July).
Generally unsettled with some active periods at high latitudes is
expected for the 2nd day (16 July). A return to predominantly
unsettled is expected for the 3rd day (17 July).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Jul till 17 Jul
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 Jul 138 Prognoserat 15 Jul-17 Jul 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Jul 011/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 010/012-012/020-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Jul till 17 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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