Viewing archive of onsdag, 21 januari 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 021 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Jan 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Flare activity was sparse, although Region 543 (S16W21) produced a C2/Sf that occurred at 21/0036Z. A slight decay was seen in this region since yesterday. Region 540 (S14W35) lost the delta structure in the trailing position of spot cluster overnight. Region 542 (N10W16) underwent no significant changes. Region 544 (N08W04) decayed slightly in penumbral coverage during the period. All spotted regions retain their beta-gamma magnetic features. A 28 degree disappearing solar filament was observed on SXI and SOHO/EIT imagery near 21/1200Z. LASCO imagery is inconclusive at this time but initial C2 data indicates there is a resulting CME from this activity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible with the onset of the anticipated shock passage, due early on 22 Jan; resulting from the long duration C-flare that occurred late on 19 Jan. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 23 Jan. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions should return by 24 Jan.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Jan till 24 Jan
M-klass25%25%25%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       21 Jan 130
  Prognoserat   22 Jan-24 Jan  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Jan  011/016
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  010/015
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  030/045-015/025-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Jan till 24 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt45%30%15%
Små stormförhållanden25%15%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt45%35%20%
Små stormförhållanden30%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%10%01%

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